Collegiate Conference Realignment: What Happens Next? (And Why.)

September 29, 2011 - 0 comments

What seemed to be the inevitable rush to 4 16-member Super Conferences has slowed down recently, but there are still changes coming; and sooner rather than later. And here’s why.
But first let’s review…this is what we know for sure:

With the addition of Syracuse & Pitt, the ACC is going to 14 schools, but is not opposed to adding 2 more.

The SEC, by adding Texas A&M, is going to 13 schools, but may need to add 1 more for short term scheduling purposes, and eventually may prefer another 2 for a total of 16.

The Big 12, which seemed on the verge of extinction 2 weeks ago, apparently has dodged another bullet, but still needs to add at least one school to replace Texas A&M. (And that’s assuming it can keep the other 9 schools happy & committed to the conference.)

Whatever the outcome of the current situation in the Big 12 will determine the next dominoes to fall. And it will happen soon because conference leadership is pressuring each member school to re-commit to the Big 12, including assignment of media rights for 6 years.

So if you are a Big 12 school that is not sold on the long term viability of your conference (like Missouri), and long for the stability and prestige (and did we mention the much higher pay out) of the SEC, you will need to make your move soon. And it becomes even more time sensitive with the fact that other schools may covet the same spot you are angling for (like West Virginia of the Big East). And of course, the SEC knows all this. So, something should happen, and soon. And in either the Missouri or West Virginia scenario, more dominoes will fall.

If Missouri goes to the SEC, the Big 12 still survives (and will as long as Texas and Oklahoma call that conference home), but will now need to add at least 2 more schools. Where will they come from? In every scenario, at least 1 of the new schools would come from the Big East (probably West Virginia). And that will effectively kill the Big East.
If West Virginia goes to the SEC, it obviously results in the same outcome: the end of the Big East.

And to complicate things even more, you have the Big East schools that are unabashedly lobbying for ACC membership: Connecticut and Rutgers. The ACC could add both and be set for the foreseeable future. Result: see above. But the ACC is willing to wait for the really big fish that’s still out there: Notre Dame. And yes, you guessed it, the Irish are also in the Big East, just not for football. If this unlikely scenario were to play out, the ACC would grab Notre Dame without hesitation and also add a 16th member at the same time; probably UConn. This movement would produce yet another set of circumstances that would prove fatal to the Big East.

So, we look for Missouri and West Virginia to push (and hard) for SEC membership before they are forced to commit long-term to their current respective conferences. If the SEC takes either one, the implications will be far-reaching and will most likely result in the demise of the Big East Conference and set off another round of conference musical chairs.

What do you think?

Until next time…

Post Info

Category: Uncategorized

Tags: